
The Economy
Good News for Investors!
Friday, July 16th, 2010
Dodd Reform Bill POV: Lewis Altfest
Friday, May 28th, 2010The following is a modified excerpt of an article that I wanted to share with you all. It was featured by InvestmentAdvisor.com on May 21, 2010.
By Lewis J. Altfest
The Senate passed its version of the financial services reform bill, S. 3217, on Thursday, May 20, by a 59-39 vote. A few remarks are now in order both on how effective it will be and how it will impact the advisor community.
There is merit to the restriction of proprietary trading at wirehouses and large institutions. I think the Volcker Rule is right in its proposal to separate the derivatives business from a financial institution’s core function. Derivatives absolutely should be traded on an exchange. There might be instances where exceptions could, and should, be made. But having them trade on an exchange will not only result in freer market conditions, but it will also shine a light on them, make them more transparent and therefore allow all of us to know what’s good and what might be a potential problem.
I’m a bit wary of the new Consumer Protection Division within the Federal Reserve. It’s set up to guard against abusive practices in areas like the mortgage industry or the credit card industry. It might be a good thing, but then again it’s not their prime area of expertise.
However, I absolutely believe in the new council on systemic risk. All these claims about not being able to see bubbles are not to be believed. Former Fed Chairmen William Machesney Martin and Paul Volcker saw bubbles forming. Machesney Martin made the famous quip about the Federal Reserve and the punchbowl. It’s the Fed’s job to take the punchbowl away just as the party gets interesting. Then no one gets drunk and hurts themselves or others. And that’s exactly what loosening and tightening credit is all about; knowing when to take the punchbowl away. I’ve been through many cycles and we’re all supposed to be big boys and let the free market happen. But if we had a more activist Federal Reserve in 2005, we certainly wouldn’t be in the position we are in today.
Ultimately, I feel the independent advisor will not be significantly affected on a granular, day-to-day basis. We will be affected on a macro level like everyone else, but not on a micro level were it has a significant impact on our business operations. However, the wirehouse advisor is a different story. Unlike many of them, we’re not about selling the “hot, new thing.” In fact, we’re about doing the exact opposite. When things blow up is when we decide to buy. We have clients in certain mortgage-backed securities that have done quite well for them. We make money when the market goes up or down. But this crazy ride we’ve been on is just not worth it. I know both my clients and myself would have greater piece of mind if volatility like this didn’t occur. Hopefully, this bill will help ensure it doesn’t happen.
What are your feelings on the bill?
Flight to Safety
Friday, May 7th, 2010A New Economic Normal?
Thursday, April 22nd, 2010By Qi Lu, Ph.D, Senior Portfolio Strategist
The free fall stopped in the second quarter of 2009 and economic recovery is well under way; yesterday the International Monetary Fund lifted its forecast of global economic growth to 4.2%. Although the National Bureau of Economic Research still believes it is premature to declare an official end to the recession, the view of strong economic recovery is gaining popularity and has certainly taken hold in the equity market. Investors are torn, however, between whether or not this recovery will be similar to past ones. Read More…
Has Everyone Participated in This Market Rally?
Thursday, April 1st, 2010By Theresa Chen, CFA
I know most of us are relieved that 2008 and 2009 are behind us, at least as they relate to the stock market. However, I came across an article a few months ago that stayed with me and triggered a reflection on these past couple of years. The article quotes Warren Buffett’s op-ed piece in The New York Times, in which he announced to the world that he was buying American stocks. At the time Buffet wrote, “I haven’t the faintest idea as to whether stocks will be higher or lower a month — or a year — from now. What is likely, however, is that the market will move higher … well before either sentiment or the economy turns up. So if you wait for the robins, spring will be over.” What he was referring to is the futility of market timing. One of the most instinctive reactions during a downturn is to sell stocks and then try get back in when the worst is over. The problem is that by the time the worst is over, the market timer could have missed out on most of the gains.
Read More…
Leading, Lagging & Coincident Indicators - What does it all mean?
Monday, January 11th, 2010By Tom Fredrickson
One way not to get pushed and pulled by seemingly contradictory news reports about the economy is to think about leading, lagging and coincident indicators.
News articles frequently mention consumer confidence and how consumers make up 70% of the economy; they often question whether things can get better with consumers so unhappy and unemployment so high. The market can sell off when consumer confidence numbers are negative.
